How Quickly Can Stocks Recover From COVID-19?
The market volatility continues, as the S&P 500 Index has closed either up or down 4% or more for a record 7 consecutive days. With the S&P 500 Index down 30% from the highs, it has officially moved into a bear market. Yesterday, we took a look at how stocks did after the lows of major corrections formed, and today we’ll take another angle on this.
We do not know if down 30% is the lows; in fact, it probably isn’t. The good news is we feel we are getting close to a major low. How quickly could stocks regain their February 19 highs? “Historically we’ve found that some of the quickest market sell-offs can lead to some of the fastest recoveries,” explained LPL Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “That’s the good news. The bad news is if the economy falls into a recession, it can take longer.”
As the LPL Chart of the Day shows, there have been 14 previous bear markets since 1950, and it took an average of 20 months from the bear market lows to recover the losses*. Taking this a step further, when the economy avoided a recession, the recovery took only 10 months, versus 30 months for a recession, although a lot of that is because bear markets accompanied by recessions are typically deeper. Last, the last three bear markets that avoided a recession recovered the gains in 3 months, 4 months, and 4 months after the ultimate bear lows were made.
We understand it’s tough out there and investors are understandably nervous, but we are here for you. Please be sure to listen to our latest LPL Market Signals Podcast, where we discuss our playbook for these troublesome times.
This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.
References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.
Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services. LPL Financial doesn’t provide research on individual equities. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.
The modern design of the S&P 500 stock index was first launched in 1957. Performance back to 1950 incorporates the performance of predecessor index, the S&P 90. This Research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC.
This Research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial (LPL), a registered investment advisor and broker-dealer (member FINRA/SIPC).
Insurance products are offered through LPL or its licensed affiliates. To the extent you are receiving investment advice from a separately registered independent investment advisor that is not an LPL affiliate, please note LPL makes no representation with respect to such entity.
If your representative is located at a bank or credit union, please note that the bank/credit union is not registered as a broker-dealer or investment advisor. Registered representatives of LPL may also be employees of the bank/credit union.
These products and services are being offered through LPL or its affiliates, which are separate entities from, and not affiliates of, the bank/credit union. Securities and insurance offered through LPL or its affiliates are:
- Not Insured by FDIC/NCUA or Any Other Government Agency
- Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed
- Not Bank/Credit Union Deposits or Obligations
- May Lose Value
For Public Use – Tracking 1-967527